Everyday Killings in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The mean figure of per-day murders each month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new administrative figures. But, public safety specialists have advised that murder figures might not indicate improved national stability.

Marked Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus almost 87 when the President began the presidential office in the previous September. This information was delivered by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded in these months is remarkably important,” the President said, adding that in November the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Intense cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific tracking town by town in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater coordination between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers urged caution that focusing solely on homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be very good news if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to accurately recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also an issue because it could mask periods when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average makes high peaks of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to show their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to create a picture of security. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas concluded.