The Israeli premier is due to confer with the US president at the presidential resort in Florida on Monday evening. This takes place as worries grow that Israel could begin new offensives against neighboring adversaries, risking plunging the Middle East further into unrest.
The prime minister left Israel on Sunday, marking his fifth meeting to see Trump in the United States in the current year.
Ceasefire in Gaza and Upcoming Hurdles
A top priority will be the truce in Gaza, which in October halted the destructive two-year war. While the stipulations for an first stage have been largely fulfilled, with Israeli forces pulling back to new positions and Hamas freeing the surviving and nearly all of the deceased hostages, enormous challenges confront the execution of the next stage of the president's 20-point plan.
There are further fears that Israel will launch new military campaigns against Hezbollah in Lebanon, shattering a ceasefire established more than a year ago, or against Iran, which it accuses of speeding up the development of ballistic missiles in recent months.
“The initial stage is essentially over, there’s one remaining Israeli deceased hostage which [Hamas] are having difficulty finding,” said an analyst involved in back-channel talks.
Both sides trade accusations of ceasefire violations. Hamas has declined to clearly commit to laying down its weapons and has had notable achievements in asserting its control in the parts of Gaza where the vast majority of population is situated. Israel is reluctant to pull out from the 53% of Gaza it now controls or to allow the unhindered flow of aid into the territory.
“Phase 2 has to begin … and I think the Americans realise that it’s late because Hamas has had too much time to reorganize and this is certainly not a situation that the Americans want to leave in place,” the expert remarked.
Civilian Impact and Current Conditions
More than 70,000 Palestinians, predominantly civilians, died in Gaza during the war and almost all the territory’s 2.3 million population was forced from their homes. Approximately 400 Palestinians have perished in Gaza since the October ceasefire, and huge numbers continue to live in conditions of extreme difficulty.
In the past few weeks, downpours and chilly weather have worsened the suffering in Gaza, where most housing and infrastructure have been badly damaged or destroyed.
The war was precipitated by a surprise attack by Hamas in southern Israel in 2023, in which 1,200 people, predominantly civilians, were killed and 250 others abducted.
Next Stages and Political Tensions
Under the subsequent phases of the roadmap, an transitional administration made up of nonaligned Palestinian technocrats is to run the Palestinian territory instead of Hamas. An multinational peacekeeping force of thousands of troops is to be sent in.
US officials have suggested the make-up of the new authority could be made public in January.
Reports indicate that senior US officials are increasingly exasperated “as Netanyahu has taken steps to undermine the fragile ceasefire and stall the peace process”.
“There are more and more signs that the American administration is getting impatient with Netanyahu,” commented a foreign policy specialist. “The question is what it’s going to do about it, because the second phase is right now going nowhere.”
The Prime Minister's Main Goals
For Netanyahu, a key objective will be convincing Trump to allow Israel to act to prevent Iran from fixing the destruction inflicted on its nuclear programme or building its ballistic missile capabilities.
Meanwhile, efforts to secure a stability deal between Israel and Syria have failed to make significant progress and will also be a topic at Mar-a-Lago. Israeli officials have also called for more decisive measures to disarm Hezbollah.
Netanyahu has an election within 10 months, and the impending polls will affect his agenda. “Everything is connected to [his] remaining in office,” an analyst said.
Polls suggest Netanyahu’s current coalition would have a hard time to form a government if elections were held now. Many voters are angry over the shortcomings that led to the 2023 Hamas raid, moves concerning military service exemptions, and a number of scandals.
A strong bond with Trump would bolster Netanyahu’s appeal among floating voters and his base. This suggests any visible discord between the two leaders is extremely unlikely, analysts said.
Netanyahu is expected to seek to make the case to Trump of the need for Israel to maintain a defence advantage over potential regional enemies. Many Israeli officials were alarmed by earlier US comments regarding advanced weapons sales to other regional states.
