Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.