Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”