Followers of the Magpies are progressively viewing Eddie Howe's squad as an inconsistent friend. At their brilliant best, they can be the undisputed thrill-seekers, delivering high-intensity displays. But, on other occasions, once-dependable figures like their midfield linchpin and his teammates completely fail to appear.
Exacerbating these problems is a late-game approach riddled with a worrying streak of chaos. Before their holiday fixture to Old Trafford, the numbers tell a concerning story: the team has squandered 13 vital top-flight leverage from winning situations this campaign and are without a shutout in 10 straight matches in every tournament. Earning victory at Old Trafford would constitute only their second domestic success on the travel this season.
Conversely, defeat has only come on one occasion in their previous 6 league fixtures, and although occupying a seemingly lowly eleventh position, they are a only six points behind the highly-prized Champions League places. Add in an upcoming two-part League Cup semi-final against the reigning champions and a reasonable prospect of advancing to the Champions League knockout phase, and it is simpler to appreciate the manager's cautious optimism.
“Our issues aren't limited to problems,” said the club's boss. “There are positives too. The perspective here is decidedly optimistic right now. I understand others might have a opposing view, but my belief is we are improving.”
The challenge is: will this group recapture – or perhaps exceed – the successes of the previous campaign's Wembley triumph and European-qualifying standing? Balancing a packed schedule makes this difficult.
This tiredness might account for the failure to sustain a stellar opening 45-minute showing against Chelsea, ultimately squandering a two-goal lead to tie 2-2. Similarly, it is possibly the reason for a lackluster performance in a painful loss to local rivals the Black Cats, where the side looked off the pace just days after a tough Champions League away day.
Although coaching is clearly the manager's strength, the constant grind of twice-weekly football has drastically cut into valuable coaching time. This impedes the team's tactical adjustment to playing with summer signing their number nine up front, instead of the departed their former star. While immensely skilled, Woltemade does not possess the same blistering breakaway pace or relentless defensive work rate.
In fact, the side's previously effective high press has sporadically failed. Fitness issues to vital engine Joelinton have been a factor, while expensive signings the Swedish winger and the English midfielder have had difficulties settling after their big-money moves.
While a move to a 3-5-2 might theoretically help the team, a full-blown defensive injury crisis renders that difficult. Important defenders will be unavailable for the next key matches, straining the squad's resilience.
When playing at their ferocious best, they appear almost unplayable. The catch is sustaining that intensity for the entire match. The typical alternative approach of dropping deep into a passive defensive formation has sometimes proven self-destructive.
“The Chelsea match descended into disorganized at 2-2,” admitted the manager. “But the intention was trying to win. We always go out to secure the three points.”
What appears called for is a balanced approach – with superior ball retention, a engine room capable of slowing the tempo, and a realistic willingness to occasionally accept a draw. Yet, a determination to compete on every fronts is stretching finite squad options to their limit.
It may sound sacrilegious to some, but a different approach in the domestic cups earlier could have alleviated the current fixture pile-up. Amid critical European & league games on the horizon, the imperative to strategically prioritize is growing ever more clear.
Eddie Howe recognized the size of the task ahead. “Being involved a club of this size, the demands are immense. Every moment's critical. There is progress to be made in the league. We are in the Carabao Cup semi-finals, we aim to go through in the Europe and do well in the FA Cup.
“The direction is in the correct path, but we have plenty of work to do to become the regularly winning team we envision. The ability to string together winning runs has escaped us this season.
“The challenge is to attain those heights we know we're capable of. My feeling is that the confidence to do that is returning. Yet now we have to show it. It ain't all bad currently, but the next few weeks will shape a great deal.”
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